Sharon ignored Mofaz’s advice at the time–the exchange was six months ago–but last week he tapped the retired general to be his new Defense minister, a job that would give him enough clout to authorize such schemes. Sharon is in trouble. Since his coalition collapsed last week with the walkout of the center-left Labor Party, the Israeli leader has reached out to a cast of hard-liners, hoping to assemble a narrow government and avert early elections. The result could be the most right-wing coalition in Israel’s history.
Analysts say international pressure would moderate such a government. But some Mideast watchers in Washington are worried that extremist policies could undermine the war effort against Iraq. “This would put more pressure on the Arab governments whose support we’re going to need, not only during the military phase of the war on Iraq, but afterward as well,” says Edward Walker, who served as a U.S. ambassador in the region and as assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Arafat’s expulsion is only one scenario. Among Sharon’s potential coalition partners are lawmakers who advocate scrapping the Oslo peace accords, authorizing new Jewish settlements and even annexing parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Two parties have already demanded changes in the government’s written guidelines–dropping restrictions on settlement expansion and limiting contacts with Palestinians–as a condition for joining.
Sharon is already trying to reassure Washington that no sudden shifts would take place under a narrow government, officials say. Though Sharon’s hand has been weakened by Labor’s departure, his approval rating is high. That political muscle, Sharon aides argue, will give the prime minister some leverage against the far-right parties to keep them in check. But it might not be enough. “It’s a question of whether Sharon is going to have to pay a price when it comes to the more right-leaning parties whose support he needs,” Walker says. If he does pay, it could very well be in American currency.
